The hottest rising tide of raw materials swept the

2022-08-13
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The rising price of raw materials swept the manufacturing industry! Why did it soar? What are the impacts of upstream, middle and downstream? Will the price rise continue

behind the soaring price is the global monetary easing, cycle mismatch, supply and demand are not based on the product selection. After different attachments, experiments such as stretching, tightening, twists, peeling, tearing, puncturing, bursting, shearing, low cycle fatigue can be carried out to balance the resonance of various factors. The quotation of all plates is limited to the confirmation and payment at that time on the same day. If there is no payment, it will be voided and re reported

recently, I have been busy negotiating with all kinds of suppliers

last year, it was proposed to rise, but it has been pressed, and this year it can't be pressed

this document is wildly circulated in our industry. To be honest, my home appliances also rose a few days ago

at the end of last year, the TV you liked rose by 2000 yuan

at present, a fierce wave of raw material price increases is sweeping the upper, middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry, and finally transmitted to consumers. Why did raw materials soar? What are the impacts of upstream, middle and downstream? Will the price rise continue

upstream: the payment cannot catch up with the price rise rate

the price rises too fast, so that the payment cannot catch up with the price rise rate, not only in the steel industry. According to the data of business news agency, since this year, 30 of the 57 major bulk commodities have increased by more than 10%, 11 commodities such as crude oil, polymerized MDI and broad-leaved rubber have increased by more than 30%, and pure benzene has increased by more than 50% this year

in fact, the rise in commodity prices should have started at the beginning of the second quarter of 2020. Compared with the prices at the beginning of the second quarter of last year, the prices of nearly 40% of the 57 major commodities mentioned above have increased by more than 50%. This includes a variety of important industrial raw materials, such as industrial blood WTI crude oil increased by 212.55%, industrial mother iron ore (Australia) increased by 74.02%, and copper, the protagonist of the electrical industry, increased by 66.55%

the listed companies of raw materials in the upstream have made continuous announcements of price increases. On March 10, longmang Baili announced that from now on, the price of titanium dioxide of various models of the company will be increased by 1000 yuan/ton. Previously, on March 3, CNNC titanium dioxide, anada and Huiyun Titanium Industry issued a price increase announcement on the same day, raising the prices of titanium dioxide by 1000 yuan/ton, 1000 yuan/ton and 1200 yuan/ton respectively. These companies have increased their prices times this year

behind the soaring price is the resonance of many factors, such as global monetary easing, cycle mismatch and imbalance between supply and demand. As for the upward trend of metal prices, some analysts said that money is not the leading driver, and it should be more caused by supply and demand. Recently, copper prices have risen strongly. Solar energy is the industry with the largest demand for copper, followed by wind power and electric vehicles. Regardless of the charging pile, the annual demand of these three industries is about 400000 to 500000 tons. Generally speaking, the international balance of supply and demand is 200000 to 300000 tons. If supply does not grow as fast as demand, there will be a gap, resulting in the rise of copper prices

other analysts said that the current sharp rise in raw material prices has both monetary factors, supply and demand factors, and cyclical factors. First, the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve is the fuse; On the other hand, developed economies took the lead in realizing large-scale vaccination, which brought about the recovery of demand and production, while resource countries did not, so the supply was still low, intensifying the contradiction between supply and demand from the entity level; Third, the continuous deflation of industrial products after 2012 has led to a substantial reduction in production capacity of domestic raw material enterprises, which is a major reason for the rise in raw material prices this time

an investment analyst who did not want to be named said that the reasons for the general rise in raw material prices this round are diverse. Some varieties are indeed caused by the increase in domestic demand, some are the transmission of CPI's continuous growth to the upstream raw material end, and some are hype following the trend. Specific varieties should be analyzed in detail, and cannot be generalized, but it is generally related to loose liquidity. At present, metal raw materials are mainly priced overseas. Recently, with the improvement of the overseas epidemic, the market's expectations for economic recovery have increased, which has promoted the rise of the prices of these industrial products to a certain extent. The current price rise in China is due to the mismatch between supply and demand

middle and lower reaches: on the road of price increase or price increase

recently, I have been busy negotiating with all kinds of suppliers. Liu Lei, the head of the Shenzhen Branch of a well-known listed company, told that since the start of the holiday, she has received letters from various suppliers about price increases, which are mostly about 10%, but her psychological line is that she can only accept a price increase of about 4%. The reason for setting the price at 4% is that the previous tax preference was reduced from 17% to 13%, and they also enjoy a profit transfer of about 4%, Now that the price has increased, their expectation is to return to the price before the tax preference, so as to meet the requirements of the head office for cost control

now she is bargaining with various suppliers every day. Only one supplier anxious to increase the price accepted the 4% increase, and the others are sawing, but Liu Lei said that an agreement will be reached in the end. After all, if we don't accept the price increase and look for new suppliers, the price will certainly be higher. Our bargaining chip for these old suppliers is to give priority to payment and promise them to pay regularly and on time

in Liu Lei's view, the negotiation is to achieve a balance between the two sides. The supplier has borne about 10% of the price increase from the initial upstream. She undertakes four or five points of price increase here, so there is little difference between the two sides. For my downstream price increase? I didn't think that the profit of our business was OK. Let's bear the price rise first. Material prices rise and fall, do we have to follow frequent changes? Still focus on stable customers

it was mentioned last year, but it has been pressed, and it can't be pressed this year. Mr. Liu is a purchaser of an environmental protection enterprise in Guangzhou. Since last year, suppliers have successively asked for price increases, and he prevaricated him on the grounds that the contract did not expire. However, he knows that the price will definitely increase this year, and the range should not be less than 10%

fortunately, the cost of raw materials accounts for a small proportion of the total cost of the company, and the impact is controllable. After the price rise of raw materials, our product side must have little profit. Fortunately, we also have the engineering side, and the profit is OK. It is not disturbed by the price rise, and we can iron out the impact of the price rise of materials to a certain extent

but for Li Hao, who is engaged in the plastic industry, the situation is not so optimistic. The price of my product is 9500 yuan/ton, of which the cost of raw materials accounts for 8500 yuan/ton, and the cost of other rent artificial hydropower operations only accounts for 1000 yuan/ton. The material has increased by nearly 20% from the end of last year, but the comprehensive price increase of my fixed customers and individual customers is less than 10%, which is very stressful. Now we are about to start a new round of bidding for the supply cycle. He decided to set the bidding price higher. If he can win the bid, he will win the bid. If he can't win the bid, it's OK. After receiving the bid at a low price, once the price of raw materials rises, we propose to raise the price. The process of large companies is long, and they can only be approved in a few months, which is very passive

in his factory, large trucks come to pick up goods from time to time, and outsiders look like business is booming. 3 The synthesis technology of new rubber and the preparation technology of new rubber materials, but only he knows the pain in his heart. Originally, it was a small profit and fast-moving business, but now there is no small profit, and the factory is busy and busy

Ms. Jian, who deals in curtain business in Shenzhen Dongmen Zhongfang Textile City, is also afraid of losing consumers due to price increases. Ms. Jian told that at the end of February and the beginning of March, the prices of cloth suppliers had increased twice, with a cumulative increase of about 12% - 13%. The suppliers said that they had to raise the prices of raw materials. When asked whether the price of curtains should also be increased correspondingly, Ms. Jane said that it would not be temporarily, and consumers may not accept it. After all, curtains are not a necessity, and some consumers will lose if the price is high, so they can only choose to earn less to maintain the original price. In addition, two cloth manufacturers also said that the price of raw materials has increased a lot recently

Recently, a "document of Anhui Shengshi Xinxing Gree Trading Co., Ltd." came out of the market, saying that because the price of bulk materials continues to rise and the manufacturing cost of air conditioners continues to rise, the company will implement a new price supply system to study and judge the market trend of the industry. The price of hang ups will rise by twoorthree and the price of cabinet machines will rise by threehundredandfivehundred. It is reported that Anhui Shengshi Xinxing Gree is a dealer of Gree. In response, the relevant person of Gree Electric Appliance said that it was still in accordance with the original price policy, and there was no price increase

then, I called Anhui Shengshi Xinxing Gree Trading Co., Ltd. and the relevant person responded: there is no such thing as (price rise). I hope you don't spread the wrong information. Every spring and summer, our supply agreement with suppliers will be adjusted, and the market price will not rise

our industry is crazy about this document. My understanding is that the head office has a guiding price. Even if the guiding price does not rise, branches everywhere can raise the selling price on the basis of the guiding price. To tell the truth, my home appliances also rose a few days ago. Another well-known electrical appliance brand dealer in Shenzhen told him that at the beginning of March, he increased the price of some products by 35 percentage points, and some models increased, while others did not

previously, Dong Mingzhu, chairman and President of Gree Electric Appliance, also responded to the problem of air-conditioning price rise. She said that the price rise of air-conditioning was due to the recent rise in copper prices, but it was not a long-term one. Gree insisted on not raising prices, but if copper prices continued to rise, it would depend on the situation. Don't transfer this to consumers immediately

other household appliance brands have a more direct attitude towards price increases. Since January this year, many brands including oaks air conditioner, Zhigao air conditioner, Hisense and TCL have successively adjusted their prices. On February 28, Midea refrigerator business department issued the notice of Midea refrigerator price increase, announcing that the price system of Midea refrigerator products will be increased by 10% - 15% from March 1

because the cost of raw materials accounts for a large proportion of products, the household appliance industry is also one of the industries most affected by the rising price tide. Statistics show that the cost of raw materials accounts for more than 70% in the household appliance manufacturing industry, especially in large household appliances

AVC monitoring data shows that offline, in January this year, the average price of color TV sets was 4573 yuan/set, an increase of 22.3% year-on-year; The average price of air conditioners was 3937 yuan/set, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year; The average price of washing machine was driven by the structural growth of drum, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9 percentage points; The overall average price of range hood market increased by 11% year-on-year

when is the rising tide of raw material prices

the rising price of raw materials affects the nerves of all parties. When is the rising price tide? For raw materials affected by different factors, they may go out of different markets, and even for the same kind of raw materials, the market expectations are different. Taking the market's judgment on the subsequent trend of metal prices as an example, analysts said that any rise in metal prices is a manifestation of phased supply-demand imbalance. Don't think it will last for many years and will continue to rise in the future. It's impossible. It must be phased. He also took copper as an example to explain that whether copper can produce a large boom cycle in the future depends on whether there will be explosive growth in infrastructure in Southeast Asia

the analyst team believes that as a major manufacturing country in the world, China's industrial metal consumption accounts for the highest proportion, which determines that in the medium and long term, China's demand side is the core contradiction of price changes. Although short-term overseas

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