The demand for the hottest cement continues to gro

2022-07-24
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The demand for cement continued to grow, and the PV glass rose in value.

in the first quarter of this year, China's building materials industry grew rapidly as a whole. With the decline in the valuation of the sector after the quarterly report is net, some securities companies believe that the opportunity of low absorption in the industry has emerged

from the perspective of sub sectors, the glass sector has continued to decline recently, but photovoltaic glass has benefited from the development of the photovoltaic industry. Many securities companies still see the tear test of the electronic universal testing machine for the purpose of obtaining a good tear strength value. In addition, many securities companies predict that the cement price may still rise further in the future, and the cement sector still deserves further attention

the building materials sector now has low absorption opportunities

in the first quarter of this year, the performance of China's building materials sector grew rapidly. According to the report released by Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., the return on assets of the building materials sector in the leading quarter increased year-on-year, and the growth rate of projects under construction decreased significantly. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the building materials sector increased by 121%, the profitability increased by 5.28% year-on-year, the cost rate during the period decreased by 0.87% year-on-year, the construction in progress continued to decrease, and the roe increased by 1.24% year-on-year, reaching 3.1%

in the molecular sector, the volume and price of the cement sector have risen at the same time, the growth rate of performance is obvious, the speed of converting to fixed assets has slowed down, and the number of projects under construction has decreased; The growth rate of glass plate slows down, the number of projects under construction increases, and the supply pressure increases; Demand for furniture decoration sector rebounded

according to the report released by Soochow securities, with the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the annual report and quarterly report have come to an end temporarily, and the building materials sector has begun to show investment opportunities after the previous wave of adjustment. It is suggested that individual stocks with sufficient adjustment in the early stage but still good growth should be distributed, such as diamond glass (23.980, -0.52, -2.12%), Dongfang Yuhong (29.90, -0.54, -1.77%), etc. This year's power rationing exceeded expectations again, and the power shortage came earlier than in previous years. Affected by this, the cement industry is likely to continue the story of limited price hikes, and other industries such as glass industry will also be affected

the report released by Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. also said that: focusing on the construction of affordable housing and water conservancy construction, it continues to be optimistic about the cement industry with supply subtraction and the leading stocks with safety margin and benefiting from the world economic recovery. We suggest continuing to pay attention to Conch Cement (36.50, -0.16, -0.44%), Jidong Cement (24.08, -0.02, -0.08%), tapai group (9.06, -0.02, -0.22%), Tianshan cement (36.78,0.07,0.19%), Jiangxi cement (14.39,0.48,3.45%), Yatai group (7.56,0.00,0.00%), Jinyu cement (12.40, -0.19, -1.51%), Tongli cement (13.46,0.16,1.20%), Qingsong Jianhua (22.96, -0.44, -1.88%), Fujian cement (10.05,0.16,1.62%), etc. Continue to pay attention to the building materials dragon head portrait Beixin building materials (13.92,0.04,0.29%) and China glass fiber (27.95, -0.14, -0.50%) benefiting from the recovery of the world economy, as well as the home decoration companies with rebounding demand

cement prices continued to rise

since this year, cement prices have remained at a high level, resulting in rapid growth of the industry as a whole in the first quarter. Many securities companies predict that cement prices may still rise further in the future

according to the analysis of the report released by Guotai Junan Securities, the cement industry is cyclical, and the first quarter is the off-season of the cement industry. However, in 2011, the off-season of the cement industry was not light. In the first quarter of 2011, the net interest rate of the sector has reached the annual net interest rate of 2010, which is 12%, an increase of 5% over the same period of 2010, which is strongly confirmed by the strong growth of the cement industry. In the first quarter of 2011, the net interest rates of cement companies ranked as follows: Conch Cement (24%), Chaodong shares (16.95,0.17,1.01%) (23%), tapai group (14%), Jiangxi cement (13%), Jianfeng group (9.97, -0.33, -3.20%) (13%), and the net interest rates of these companies were higher than the industry average

from the trend of cement in 2011, PE at the beginning of the year was eight to nine times, and by the first ten days of April, the average PE of cement stocks had reached 16 times, and the share price of cement had doubled in more than one quarter. Therefore, after April, the cement share price slightly adjusted. At present, the average PE of cement shares is 14 times. Judging from the background of the cement industry, the basic logic of good orientation has not changed

power rationing has brought about a continuous rise in cement prices. Data show that in the third week of May, the cement market price in China continued to rise by 0.57%. Among them, the prices in Jiangxi, Chongqing and Fujian increased by 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton respectively. According to the analysis of Huatai United Securities, the price rise in Jiangxi and Chongqing is mainly due to the impact of restricted films and the shortage of cement supply; Fujian region is a continuous rise

according to the report released by the broker, Jiangxi Province has implemented orderly power rationing for small cement enterprises since the end of April, and implemented different restriction standards according to local conditions. This year, there was less rain in Jiangxi, which also led to the early and large-scale start of the project, and the demand rebounded rapidly. Jiangxi Province has also been regulating the cement industry recently to avoid malicious low-cost competition

in addition, since the middle of May, enterprises in some regions of Jiangsu have started to stop production and grinding due to power restriction. Since the details of power restriction have not been announced, it is impossible to estimate the impact on output. It is also understood that enterprises in southern Jiangsu have planned to increase the cement price by 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, and the target price has risen to 500 yuan/ton

power rationing has also triggered a sharp rise in cement prices in Hunan. According to Huatai United Securities, since May, the cement price in Hunan has risen sharply due to the impact of power shortage, reaching 60 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. The highest transaction price in the high-grade market has reached 500 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of Southern cement is about 480 yuan/ton

Minsheng securities also said that Zhejiang, Hunan and other places have taken power rationing measures against the power shortage. Among them, the price of cement in areas with serious power shortage rises more rapidly. The nationwide power shortage this year is earlier and wider than that in 2010, and its impact on the profits of cement enterprises needs to be further observed

the elimination of backward production capacity has also led to the recent rise in cement prices

compared with previous years, Hubei Province has made the greatest efforts to eliminate backward production capacity this year, and the amount is much higher than 364 last year 150000 tons; From the perspective of the industry, the biggest highlight of this model in iron making, printing and dyeing, cement and other industries this year is the significant increase in the elimination of the new golden color model. Moreover, since last year, Hubei Province has stopped the examination, approval and filing of capacity expansion projects in high energy consumption and high emission industries, and ordered local governments to stop the construction of projects approved in violation of regulations; For regions and enterprises that cannot complete the task of eliminating production capacity, project approval and filing shall be suspended

Minsheng securities commented that: with the arrival of the peak construction season, it is expected that Hubei cement demand will still maintain a rapid growth, and the regional price is expected to break through. We recommend Huaxin Cement (24.43,1.41,6.13%) as a leading enterprise in the region

the rise of price is likely to lead to the rise of share price. The report released by Huatai United Securities said:

we believe that in the case of a large number of affordable housing starts in the second half of the year, the annual cement demand will not be significantly weakened, and the supply side contraction caused by power rationing can stabilize the cement price at the current high level, or even continue to rise, and the industry is still in a high boom state

we maintain our "overweight" rating on the cement industry, and we are still most optimistic about cement stocks whose prices have recovered due to the replication of East China synergy model in Xinjiang, East China, central China and other regions that may limit power supply, as well as northeast China. At present, the priority recommended for A-share cement listed companies is: conch cement, Tianshan shares, Qingsong Jianhua, Huaxin Cement, Yatai group, Jinyu shares, Chaodong shares, Qilian Mountains (17.98, -0.02, -0.11%), and tapai group

the prospect of photovoltaic glass is promising

from the perspective of sub sectors, the glass sector has continued to decline recently, but one of the photovoltaic glass, benefiting from the development of the photovoltaic industry, is still favored by many securities companies

according to the introduction of Shanxi securities (8.85, -0.20, -2.21%), due to the decline in the demand for glass in the real estate and automobile industry, the increase in the inventory of glass enterprises and the rapid production capacity, the decline in the glass industry in recent March (to the end of May) was 15.47%, ranking first in all sectors. At present, the PE of the whole industry in 2011 was about 22 times

according to the report released by the broker, we have given the glass industry a "prudent recommendation" rating. The main logical relationship lies in: first, we believe that the current decline in glass demand is mainly due to the decline in the construction of commercial housing, while the demand driven by the construction of affordable housing has not been fully released; Secondly, the price of raw materials such as soda ash with limited impact is expected to continue to rise, which restricts the profitability of the industry to a certain extent; Thirdly, compared with the growth rate of the installed capacity of solar cells, the capacity expansion rate of ultra white calendered glass in the past two years is not inferior, and it is facing the situation of rapid growth in both demand and supply, especially this year and next. Among the individual stocks of listed companies, CSG and AVIC Sanxin PE are only 17 times and 20 times respectively, with considerable growth in the future and obvious valuation advantages

in comparison, the prospect of photovoltaic glass may be better. Xiangcai Securities said that during the year, the profitability of photovoltaic production-oriented companies was generally suppressed by prices, and it was difficult to achieve high performance growth. Auxiliary materials and equipment enterprises with both scale growth and import substitution space were the main focus of photovoltaic investment during the year. The gross profit rate of photovoltaic glass is higher than that of photovoltaic product manufacturing industry chain, and also higher than that of ordinary glass. Therefore, we believe that the photovoltaic glass business of relevant enterprises is expected to maintain a high growth rate and gross profit rate in two years, and a high growth rate and relatively stable gross profit rate can be achieved in the photovoltaic parity three to five years later

according to the report issued by Xiangcai securities, we are still optimistic about the price and profitability of ultra white calendered glass during the year. In the long run, due to the low technological barriers and the rapid expansion of production, the supply will increase greatly in the next few years, and the profitability will be compressed; On the other hand, the price of photovoltaic modules tends to decline for a long time, and the gross profit margin of cover glass and other supporting products will also decrease. We are optimistic about the growth of the photovoltaic glass business for a long time, and the later development will depend on the high growth rate of the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the photovoltaic glass leader CSG a (15.99, -0.37, -2.26%), the ultra white float glass core technology enterprise Jinjing Technology (14.49, -0.97, -6.27%), and Topri Xinneng (13.82, -0.26, -1.85%) with advantages in energy, materials and transportation

the price of soda ash rises again in the power shortage

thanks to the recent power shortage, the price of soda ash rises again. The price of light soda ash in the Yangtze River Delta on May 27 was 2000 yuan/ton, up 3.63%

according to the report released by Guolian securities, we judged that the price of soda ash would increase mainly due to power restriction, overhaul of large enterprises and other factors. We believe that the configuration of the rear dual system and the simple mouse operation can make all work orderly and flexible, improve the efficiency and increase the safety of quality. The price of soda ash in the city mainly depends on the scope and intensity of power restriction, The shutdown and overhaul of large soda ash enterprises are also the main factors affecting the price trend of soda ash

Northeast Securities (18.66, -0.69, -3.57%) believes that although the current soda industry has obvious "excess" characteristics, product prices can rise and fall sharply in the "excess" pattern. In the effect of power rationing caused by the requirements of energy conservation, emission reduction and consumption reduction in the last year of the eleventh five year plan, the price of soda ash has experienced a sharp rise and fall. The reason for the rise in price is that the operating rate of soda ash enterprises is reduced and the product supply is directly reduced

current power shortage situation in China

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