The demand for construction machinery will continue to recover and the industry boom will continue to improve
the demand for construction machinery will continue to recover and the industry boom will continue to improve
China Construction Machinery Information
Guide: the machinery industry boom of Guosen Securities will continue to improve. The current downward cycle of the machinery industry reached the bottom of the boom around the fourth quarter of 2008. Due to the rapid shift of macro policies, under the background of strong support from industrial policies and rapid expansion of credit scale, The industry boom will gradually recover in 2009
the boom of the machinery industry will continue to improve
the current downward cycle of the machinery industry reached the bottom of the boom around the fourth quarter of 2008. Due to the rapid shift of macro policies, under the background of strong support from industrial policies and rapid expansion of credit scale, the industry boom will gradually recover in 2009. In the second half of 2009, the industry recovery will continue and extend from the leading sector to the industry as a whole. The downward cycle of the machinery industry has bottomed out. In the second half of the year, the industry boom will continue the recovery trend and extend from the construction machinery sector that took the lead in recovery to machine tool equipment, basic parts and components with great configuration flexibility
exceeded the expected demand and triggered investment opportunities in construction machinery
in the first half of 2009, the trend of the construction machinery sector significantly exceeded the CSI 300 index. The main reason is that the implementation of the national four trillion policy led to the recovery of the construction machinery market demand. According to our analysis of the historical valuation of the construction machinery sector, the sector valuation is highly positively related to the market demand, This is the top priority of the task of industrial supply side structural reform; Therefore, the investment opportunity of construction machinery in the second half of the year still comes from the demand exceeding expectations. First of all, we expect that the mining industry and export will play a limited role in driving the market demand of construction machinery in the second half of the year to ensure the on-demand and on-demand inspection services; Secondly, despite the high growth of infrastructure investment from January to April, according to the plan at the beginning of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year is likely to decline. In addition, the new fiscal expenditure of the central government in the second half of the year is less than that in the first half of the year. We expect that the sustained high growth of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year will depend on the investment intensity of local governments; Finally, according to our analysis of the real estate vacancy area index and sales growth, we predict that the growth rate of the newly started real estate area is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the rise of the newly started real estate area is expected to lead to the industry demand exceeding expectations
the machinery industry is expected to benefit from the economic recovery
the continuous promotion of domestic industrialization and urbanization, the huge import substitution and overseas market development, which provide long-term demand space for the domestic machinery industry. Although the peak season has passed, the construction machinery industry is still in the process of recovery in the second half of the year, which will continue to rise year-on-year. It maintains the judgment that the industry revenue growth rate in 2009 was about 9%. It is expected that the recovery of real estate investment and export will exceed expectations. Considering that the railway infrastructure investment is still strong, we expect that the revenue growth of rail transit equipment manufacturing industry will resume in the second half of the year, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 20%, and the industry will face huge development opportunities in the next few years. Benefiting from the successive implementation of supporting policies such as major science and technology projects, the newly signed orders in the machine tool industry have shown signs of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic about the development of the machinery industry and give a rating of "stronger than the general trend"
for a long time, CSCEC will continue to restore the domestic demand for construction machinery. In the first half of the year, the construction machinery industry recovered slowly, and the sales of major construction machinery products slowed down. After deducting the Spring Festival in February, the sales volume of main construction machinery products decreased month by month, and the recovery trend was obvious. Among them, excavators and bulldozers performed well, with a decrease from 42.04% and 45.64% in January to 1.67% and 21.58% in May; Forklifts and loaders perform poorly. The State Council lowered the capital ratio of fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction projects, which is expected to continue to maintain high growth in the second half of the year due to the shortage of 4trillion yuan of local supporting funds for investment and the lower than expected progress of the project
the accelerated growth of investment in fixed assets has led to an increase in domestic demand for construction machinery. Real estate and infrastructure investment drive the demand for concrete machinery, cranes, excavators, bulldozers, rotary drilling rigs, loaders and other machinery products. It is expected that the domestic demand for construction machinery will continue to recover in the second half of the year. The lowest point of the industry has passed, and we expect that the industry will continue to recover rapidly next year, so we raised the industry investment rating to "overweight"